Uncovering Correlations and Biases in Parameter Inference from Neutron Star Pulse-profile Modeling
揭示中子星脉冲轮廓建模参数推断中的相关性与偏差
Modeling of X-ray pulse profiles from millisecond pulsars offers a promising method of inferring the mass-to-radius ratios of neutron stars. Recent observations with Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) resulted in measurements of radii for three neutron stars using this technique. In this paper, we explore correlations between model parameters and the degree to which individual parameters can be inferred from pulse profiles, using an analytic model that allows for efficient and interpretable exploration. We introduce a new set of model parameters that reduce the most prominent correlations and allow for efficient sampling of posteriors. We then demonstrate that the degree of beaming of radiation emerging from the neutron star surface has a large impact on the uncertainties in the inferred model parameters. Finally, we show that the uncertainties in the model parameters for neutron stars for which the polar cap temperature falls outside of the NICER energy range are significantly degraded.
展开 ▾引入一组弱简并参数(q, s, p, T∞, A)有效降低了参数间的相关性;明确揭示对于低温中子星(黑体谱峰值在NICER能段外),致密度推断的系统误差可达Δu~0.05,对应半径偏差~1.5 km。
该研究承接了NICER对PSR J0030+0451和PSR J0740+6620的早期脉冲轮廓建模(Miller+ 2019;Riley+ 2019)所呈现的半径测量与其他方法之间的紧张关系,以及Vinciguerra+ 2023指出的后验采样偏差问题。通过施瓦西加多普勒近似与傅里叶分析,作者展示了辐射非各向同性是打破几何参数简并的关键,并量化了当热斑温度低于约0.15 keV时,由于谱峰移出NICER灵敏能段而引入的显著系统误差。该框架为后续更可靠的脉冲轮廓分析提供了清晰的退化结构认知,并提示未来需要更宽能段(如硬X射线或偏振)的观测以及精确的理论束流模型,以最终实现中子星半径的无偏测量。
预印本 2024-12-16 · 接收 2026-06-02 · 刊出 2026-07-13 · 收录 2026-07-22