Clash of the titans: ultra-high energy KM3NeT event versus IceCube data
巨人之争:超高能 KM3NeT 事件与 IceCube 数据
KM3NeT has reported the detection of a remarkably high-energy through-going muon. Lighting up about a third of the detector, this muon likely originated from a neutrino exceeding 10 PeV in energy. The crucial question we need to answer is where this event comes from and what its source is. Intriguingly, IceCube has been operating with a much larger effective area for a considerably longer time, yet it has not reported neutrinos above 10 PeV. We quantify the tension between the KM3NeT event and the absence of similar high-energy events in IceCube under various assumptions of the origin for the neutrino including the isotropic diffuse flux, cosmogenic flux, and a steady or transient point source. Through a detailed analysis, we determine the most likely neutrino energy to be in the range of 23 ─ 2400 PeV, and find a tension between the experiments ranging from 3.6 to 3.1 σ for diffuse origins and 2.9 to 2.0 σ for point sources. The lack of observation of high-energy events in IceCube seriously challenges the explanation of this event coming from any known diffuse fluxes. Our results indicate the KM3NeT event is likely the first observation of a new astrophysical source.
展开 ▾首次对 KM3NeT 单事件与 IceCube 十多年曝光进行系统贝叶斯/泊松兼容性检验;推断中微子能量约 23–2400 PeV,并显示已知弥散通量、cosmogenic 模型及点源都难以自然解释,暗示这是新型天体物理源的首个观测。
此前 IceCube 已在数十 TeV 至 PeV 尺度确立各向同性弥散中微子流 Naab+ 2023,但始终未发现 >10 PeV 事件;KM3NeT 报告的 ARCA21 超高能缪子事件 Aiello+ 2025 因此带来显著张力。本文与 KM3NeT 官方兼容性检验 Adriani+ 2025c 互补,系统比较了弥散幂律、cosmogenic 模型和点源三类起源。对于 cosmogenic 解释,作者采用 Ahlers+ 2010、Ahlers and Halzen 2012、van Vliet+ 2019 三个代表性模型并结合 IceCube 最新约束 Abbasi+ 2025,得到 3.1–3.6σ 的张力;弥散幂律为 3.5σ。整体来看,已知弥散通量难以解释该事件,预示其可能来自一种新的天体物理源,未来需要多探测器协同以进一步分辨方向、时间结构和源类型。
预印本 2025-02-06 · 刊出 2026-02-25 · 收录 2026-08-22