PRESOL: A web-based computational setting for feature-based flare forecasting
PRESOL:基于特征的太阳耀斑预报网络计算平台
Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth. Data-driven solar flare forecasting relies on either deep learning approaches, which are operationally promising but with a low explainability degree, or machine learning algorithms, which can provide information on the physical descriptors that mostly impact the prediction. This paper describes a web-based technological platform for the execution of a computational pipeline of feature-based machine learning methods that provide predictions of the flare occurrence, feature ranking information, and assessment of the prediction performances.
展开 ▾以可解释特征和特征排序为核心,集成 2012–2025 年 HMI SHARP 数据、六种机器学习算法、多种阈值策略及 TSS/HSS/POD 等标准化检验,并以零足迹 Web 平台提供可复现基准。
它沿袭 Bobra+ 2015 以 HMI SHARP 特征做可解释机器学习耀斑预报的路线,并把 Guastavino+ 2022 的防泄漏、保持类别分布的监督划分规范固化为可配置流程;其回归输出转分类的混合阈值策略可回溯至 Benvenuto+ 2018。与深度学习方法相比,PRESOL 的重点不在端到端黑箱,而在特征排序和基于 Bloomfield+ 2012 的 TSS/HSS 等标准化检验,便于多模型横向比较。展望未来,其模块化架构使新增划分、预测与排序算法较为容易,有望发展为具备业务预警能力的太阳耀斑预报基础设施,并与多数据产品及深度预报框架实现互操作。
预印本 2025-10-02 · 刊出 2025-12-12 · 收录 2026-08-20