Probing the redshift evolution and sub-populations of binary neutron stars with the Einstein Telescope
用爱因斯坦望远镜探索双中子星的红移演化和子群
Aims. The formation channels of binary neutron stars (BNSs) currently remain uncertain, but important information can be gathered by observing their mergers with gravitational-wave detectors. The processes that lead to BNS coalescence are encoded in the time-delay distribution between stellar binary formation and BNS coalescence, and therefore in the BNS merger rate. Moreover, the detection of GW190425 by LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) suggests a sub-population of massive BNSs, possibly formed through unstable 'case BB' mass transfer with short merger delays. We investigate whether next-generation detectors such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) can constrain the time-delay distribution of BNSs and identify such sub-populations. Methods. Using the latest LVK constraints, we generated mock ET catalogues that contain a mixture of light and heavy subpopulations. We modelled the redshift distribution of each sub-population as the convolution of the cosmic star formation rate with a time-delay distribution. We first considered a scenario where the time-delay distribution is common to all BNSs and follows a power law with indices α = −0.5, −1, −1.5. In the second scenario, heavy BNSs have fixed short delays, while light BNSs follow power-law delays with the same set of indices. Hierarchical Bayesian analyses were then performed on catalogues of 100-5000 events. Results. With thousands of events, ET will be able to accurately characterise the time-delay distribution for the α = −0.5 and α = −1 cases. We find that with hundreds of detections from ET, we will be able to establish that the total mass distribution is bimodal. A few thousand events are sufficient to disentangle the redshift distributions of the two sub-populations for moderate time-delay indices (α<SUB>L</SUB> = −0.5 or −1). For steeper indices (α<SUB>L</SUB> = −1.5), the differences are more subtle and require larger catalogues, which was beyond what we could explore given our computational resources. Conclusions. Next-generation detectors should enable the detection of multiple BNS sub-populations and their redshift evolution, and provide valuable insights into their formation pathways.
展开 ▾首次结合双模质量分布与不同时延分布,用层次贝叶斯方法系统评估ET识别BNS子群的能力,定量给出需数百例确认双模、数千例分辨红移演化的结论,为规划ET科学目标提供清晰基准。
银河系双脉冲星观测显示BNS质量分布较窄Özel & Freire 2016,但GW170817与GW190425的差异暗示可能存在源于不稳定‘case BB’质量转移的快合并重BNS子群Romero-Shaw+ 2020 Galaudage+ 2021。本研究利用ET模拟星表与LVK最新并合率The LIGO Scientific Collaboration+ 2025,预测了通过红移分布区分轻/重子群所需的事件数,表明数百例即可确认双模质量分布,数千例可分辨红移演化。未来需发展结合星族合成Pellouin+ 2025与非参数方法Tenorio+ 2025的联合分析,同时LISA有望在银河系内探测射电宁静的重BNSKorol & Safarzadeh 2021,以全面限制BNS形成渠道。
预印本 2025-12-02 · 刊出 2026-07-16 · 收录 2026-07-22