Predictability of a solar flare in May 2024 using observational data-driven MHD simulations
观测数据驱动 MHD 模拟研究 2024 年 5 月太阳耀斑的可预报性
We examined the applicability of observational data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations to flare prediction. The target event was the X1.6 flare that occurred in NOAA AR 13663 at 02:22 UT on 3 May 2024. We employed a velocity-driven model, in which the photospheric velocity field was derived from the time-series magnetograms to use as the boundary input. The simulation showed a rapid increase in both thermal and kinetic energy density around the actual onset time and location of the X1.6 flare. We revealed that the flare was triggered by two-step reconnection, in which the initial tether-cutting reconnection facilitated the subsequent breakout reconnection. We further examined whether the flare could be reproduced when the boundary input was stopped prior to the actual flare onset time, assuming the situation in which the flare must be predicted using the data before it actually occurs. When the photospheric magnetic field was fixed more than 1 h before the actual flare onset time, the flare was not reproduced in the simulations. In contrast, when the photospheric velocity field at the final observation time was incorporated to infer the subsequent magnetic evolution, the prediction lead time could be extended beyond 1 h. On the other hand, quantitative prediction of the magnitude of flares remains a subject for future study.
展开 ▾揭示该耀斑由先 tether-cutting、后 breakout 的两步重联触发;系统比较停止磁图输入后的演化,发现固定磁图时预报提前量约 1 小时,延续最终速度场可进一步延长。
速度驱动的数据驱动 MHD 模拟此前已用于连续太阳等离子体爆发等事件(Kaneko+ 2021)。本研究将其应用于 2024 年 5 月 3 日的 X1.6 耀斑,发现先 tether-cutting 后 breakout 的两步重联触发机制,与 Joshi+ 2015 提出的多阶段连续重联图像相似。关于停止边界输入后的演化,Jiang+ 2016 曾报告提前停止磁图输入会使耀斑无法再现;本文进一步系统比较固定磁图(Model S)与延续最终速度场(Model E),显示前者提前量约 1 小时,后者可延长。这呼应了 Toriumi+ 2020 对 B-driven 与 E-driven 模型的分类,说明 E-driven/速度驱动方案在预报中更具外推潜力。未来结合 Wang+ 2024 的 SuperSynthIA 等时空一致磁图数据,有望克服现有数据质量和初始条件限制,发展更接近业务预报的耀斑预测方法。
预印本 2026-06-08 · 接收 2026-06-07 · 刊出 2026-06-26 · 收录 2026-08-20