Short-duration Gamma-Ray Burst and Afterglow Rates in the Rubin and Roman Era
Rubin 与 Roman 时代短伽马射线暴及余辉的发生率
Short-duration gamma-ray burst (sGRB) afterglows that follow binary neutron star (BNS)─gravitational wave events are essential for understanding the tension between the observed sGRB rate and BNS merger rate, heightened by the recent conclusion of aLIGO O4 with no new confirmed BNS detections. Using a probabilistic sGRB world model derived from a source BNS merger population, we simulate afterglow emission with AfterglowPy to investigate detection prospects of afterglows in the new era of optical surveys and probe their multimessenger implications. The predicted sGRB/BNS association is strongly dependent on sGRB beaming, which may be constrained by orphan afterglows (OAs), which arise from events with no prompt gamma-ray detection. We conclude that the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) may detect an afterglow sample sufficient in constraining sGRB jetting, with an estimated <inline-formula> <mml:math><mml:mn>5</mml:mn><mml:mo>.</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>−</mml:mo><mml:mn>1.2</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn>1.7</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:math> </inline-formula> on-axis afterglow and <inline-formula> <mml:math><mml:mn>1</mml:mn><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>−</mml:mo><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn>5</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:math> </inline-formula> OA detections per year; while the deep sensitivity of the Roman Space Telescope appears promising for probing the faint end of afterglow events in targeted follow-up strategies. The detection of afterglows in upcoming LIGO runs is possible but challenging given that we predict fewer than ≍1.4 LSST or Roman discoverable events per year within the projected aLIGO O5 BNS range across all considered jet models and observing scenarios. We update previous sGRB─BNS rate predictions, finding that continued nondetection of a BNS in O5 would require revisiting key assumptions underlying sGRB─BNS models.
展开 ▾纳入 aLIGO O4 无 BNS 探测约束更新 sGRB 喷流分布;首次系统区分在轴、离轴孤儿和暗弱孤儿,并结合实际巡天面积与节奏预测 LSST WFD 和 Roman HLTDS 的探测率,指出罗马深度适合暗弱后随但视场有限。
既往对光学孤儿余辉的估计差异较大:Lamb+ 2018 预测 LSST 每年 16–76 个,而 Ghirlanda+ 2015 给出 <50/yr 的上限;本文在 Dimitrova+ 2023 的概率 sGRB 世界模型基础上,纳入 aLIGO O4 无 BNS 探测约束并用 AfterglowPy 把 sGRB 率映射到 LSST/Roman 余辉探测。方法上通过有效 beaming fraction 连接喷流视角与巡天深度,并结合 Ivezić+ 2019 的 LSST 巡天参数,区分在轴余辉、离轴孤儿与暗弱孤儿。展望未来,Roman 的深灵敏度适合约束暗弱事件但受限于视场,理想宽视场深巡天可把孤儿探测率提升一个量级;随着 LIGO O5/Voyager 及第三代探测器推进,持续的无 BNS 探测将迫使 sGRB 喷流与 BNS 前身模型被重新审视。
预印本 2026-06-16 · 接收 2026-07-13 · 刊出 2026-08-11 · 收录 2026-08-20