Inferring the Intrinsic Population and Cosmic Rate of Short Gamma-Ray Bursts through Forward Modeling of Fermi/GBM and Swift/BAT Observations
利用 Fermi/GBM 和 Swift/BAT 正向建模推断短伽马暴内禀群体与宇宙产生率
Short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) are widely believed to originate from mergers of compact binaries, including binary neutron stars and neutron star─black hole systems. However, the observed sGRB population is strongly shaped by selection effects associated with detector sensitivity, triggering criteria, and jet orientation, which bias the inferred luminosity, redshift, and spectral distributions. We develop a forward-modeling framework to constrain the intrinsic properties and cosmic formation rate of sGRBs by simulating their detection with two independent instruments operating in different energy bands: the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT). At the level of the raw observations, the two samples exhibit apparent differences in their brightness and spectral distributions. We generate synthetic sGRB populations using parameterized luminosity functions, spectral models, and redshift evolution tied to the cosmic star formation history convolved with a power-law delay-time distribution. Each burst is passed through realistic, instrument-specific detector responses, background conditions, and onboard trigger algorithms, and is then spectrally fit to recover observable quantities. We find that a single intrinsic population model nevertheless provides a statistically consistent description of both datasets, reproducing the observed distributions of low-energy spectral index, peak energy, and fluence. The analysis reveals strong selection biases that favor low-redshift detections and truncate the observed distributions of peak energy, fluence, and duration, while only weakly affecting the low-energy spectral index. Correcting for jet beaming, we infer local sGRB formation rates of ∼258 and 562 yr<SUP>−1</SUP> Gpc<SUP>−3</SUP> from Swift/BAT and Fermi/GBM, broadly consistent with binary neutron-star merger rates inferred from gravitational-wave observations.
展开 ▾用 Fermi/GBM 与 Swift/BAT 两个独立仪器同时模拟探测,发现单一内禀群体模型可统一解释两者;校正喷流集束后所得短暴本地形成率与引力波双中子星并合率一致。
短伽马暴通常被认为源于双中子星或中子星-黑洞并合,但以往对光度、红移和能谱分布的推断常受探测器选择效应影响。本文通过构建正向建模框架,同时复现 Fermi/GBM 与 Swift/BAT 的触发和谱拟合流程,证明单一内禀群体模型可以统一解释两个原本看似不同的观测样本。相比既往仅用单一探测器或简化选择效应的研究,该方法更直接地刻画了仪器响应和触发条件造成的低红移偏好及峰值能量、流强、持续时长的截断。未来可将该框架扩展至更多伽马暴探测器以及引力波电磁对应体联合观测,进一步检验延迟时标分布、喷流结构与宇宙恒星形成历史的耦合。
接收 2026-07-20 · 刊出 2026-08-07 · 收录 2026-08-20