Submillimeter Detectability of Gravitational-Wave Counterparts from Neutron-Star Mergers with the Xue-shan-mu-chang 15-meter Telescope
XSMT 15米亚毫米望远镜对中子星并合引力波对应体的可探测性
Submillimeter (sub-mm) follow-up of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers provides unique constraints on the early-time energetics and environments of relativistic outflows, capturing the spectral evolution at epochs where centimeter-band emission is often still optically thick or yet to peak. However, the practical scientific yield depends on instrument-specific thresholds, the observing cadence, and the distinct temporal contributions from isotropic ejecta versus beamed relativistic jets. With the upcoming Xue-shan-mu-chang 15-meter SubMillimeter Telescope (XSMT), facility-specific forecasts are needed to test for sustained engine energy injection, as expected for a long-lived magnetar remnant rather than a promptly formed black hole. We present a unified numerical framework that couples engine-driven ejecta dynamics to non-thermal synchrotron emission, accounting for synchrotron self-absorption and deep-Newtonian effects. Adopting fixed 5$σ$ (1 h) point-source thresholds of 1.5/2.9/10.2 mJy at 230/345/460 GHz, we construct parameter-space detectability maps and estimate event rates based on current BNS merger-rate priors. For a fiducial local event at 40 Mpc, we find that a magnetar-boosted ejecta afterglow peaks on timescales of weeks to months and remains detectable long enough to allow delayed follow-up, with an expected all-sky rate of $\dot N_{\rm ej} \approx 0.05$--1.7 yr$^{-1}$ at 230 GHz for $f_{\rm mag}=1$; this rate is an upper limit and scales linearly with the long-lived magnetar fraction. Conversely, while relativistic jets produce intense early-time signals, their detection is constrained by narrow beaming and fleeting visibility. Our framework provides a quantitative basis for prioritizing gravitational-wave triggers and maximizing the scientific yield of XSMT in the multi-messenger era.
展开 ▾统一耦合磁星能量注入、外激波减速、同步自吸收与深牛顿修正,首次给出 XSMT 设施定制的 230/345/460 GHz 检测阈值、参数空间和事件率;各向同性抛出物通道在周-月尺度达峰并持续数月,230 GHz 全天空事件率约 0.05–1.7 yr⁻¹(磁星比例 100% 时上限),是主要发现通道。
既往工作多将磁星供能并合新星的早期辐射与晚期射电约束分开处理:Gao+ 2015 强调早期 X/光学辐射,Liu+ 2020 聚焦晚期射电余辉约束,Sarin+ 2022 则给出磁星驱动千新星多样性。本文把这些要素统一到同一外激波动力学框架中,将引擎注入直接耦合到抛出物加速,并加入同步自吸收与深牛顿修正,针对 XSMT 给出 230/345/460 GHz 的检测阈值、参数空间和事件率。这一工作将过去偏“物理演示”的磁星余辉研究推进到“设施定制、可操作观测计划”的层面。未来该框架可纳入抛射物质量、环境密度和喷流角结构等物理先验,并叠加观测调度与天气约束,从固定阈值预测走向边际化的实际产出估计,进而指导 FAST/WFST 多波段协同。
预印本 2026-08-01 · 收录 2026-08-20